WMU's

Future
of Work

programme

About Highlights Publications Country Profiles Team Get in Touch

The world of work is facing unprecedented changes. New technologies, such as artificial intelligence, robotics, automation, and digitalization of the economy, along with changes in socio-political patterns and climate change, are shifting the nature of work.

The WMU Future of Work Programme looks at how to make this shift inclusive. Through interdisciplinary research, we are developing ways to adapt to these unprecedented changes in the world of work within maritime and related industries. Taking into account hard data, combined with people’s perspectives and experiences, we aim to shape policy and decision-making within the maritime transport sector for an inclusive and sustainable future for all.

Funding and Partners

Thank you to all the fantastic supporters that fund our work and help us achieve an impact.

We are grateful for the generous funding provided by the ITF that funded the Transport 2040 flagship project.

We also thank our network at these organizations:

Please get in touch with us if you are interested in becoming a partner or want to learn more about our research.

Programme Announcements

Transport 2040 Phase 2

The ITF has funded a second phase

A New Study Released

Study on social aspects in the maritime transport sector

New Reports Available

Transport 2040 Technology and Transformation reports now available

Flagship Report Released

"Transport 2040: Automation Technology Employment - the Future of Work”.

This study has been undertaken in furtherance of the purposes and objectives of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. It addresses the following Sustainable Development Goals in particular:

Highlights

Economic benefits, demographic trends and safety factors are catalysts for automation; but in many areas of global transport the pace in the introduction of automation will be gradual.

The increasing volume of trade leads to more demand for transportation in the future, while regional changes in transportation patterns are expected.

With the gradual pace in the introduction of technology and the increased volume of trade, their effects on employment are predictable. Low- and medium skilled workers will be exposed to the high risk of automation. However, the pace of introduction and diffusion of technologies will depend on differences in the development stage of countries and their comparative advantages.

Automation and technology are influenced by the local context. The assessment of individual country profiles shows that countries and regions are not at the same level of readiness to adopt new technologies and automation. An analysis of relevant key factors highlights the gap between developed and developing countries.

The introduction of automation will be evolutionary rather than revolutionary. Automation and new technology will be introduced progressively in the maritime sector at a slower pace than in other industries. The development of international guidelines and regulation on autonomous ships are unlikely to be achieved within the next decade. Factors that depend on regions and countries can determine the speed of implementation of highlight automated maritime transport systems.

Highly automated ships have the potential to reduce the global demand for seafarers when comparing with conventional ships. Foresight simulations conducted within the study show that the the introduction of highly automated ships can reduce the global demand for seafares by 22 percent when compared with the current technological status quo (see fig. on the left). However, the simulations show a long-term growing demand for seafarers over the next two decades due to long-term increasing international trade. The number of seafarers required by 2040 is expected to be significantly higher than today. The report provides the details on how these predictions computed and what factors can affect those.

In many areas, automation is likely to result in a shift of the workforce, not in labour reduction. Automation will likely affect low- and middle-skilled jobs, intensive on predictable physical activities and repetitive data processing. For these group, automation is already existing at significant parts of the job. Further automation is expected with the consequence that parts of their jobs responsibilities will disappear. In the meantime, automation will create a demand for new types of jobs, such as remote operators, worldwide operating maintenance crews and mobility-as-a-service providers. The demand for labour will not disappear but competences and skills needed will change as tasks will change.

Transport has a high potential for automation, like other industries but in slower adoption rates. Maritime workers face the same challenges when it comes to automation than workers in other industries. The increase in the use of new technologies, such as artificial intelligence or mobile robotics together with the declining price of computing power, is likely to have a similar impact on tasks of workers across most industries, including maritime. History has shown that automation of routine-based tasks has resulted in a reduction of middle-paid jobs, causing workers to shift to low-skill, low-pay jobs.

Only a small amount of workers has been upgraded for high-skill, high-pay jobs. The pace through which the introduction of automation is phased in varies across tasks, skills, the type of job and countries. In most cases, automation is triggered by security, safety and efficiency. It is rare when the introduction of automation is only motivated by reducing labour costs.

Automation will be developed and implemented at different rates in different regions. The introduction of automation differs from a region to another. Most countries will be affected by local level conditions that play a large role in the speed and degree of impact automation has. Most countries have not developed comprehensive long-term plans related to automation.

Autonomous ships are not likely to replace conventional cargo ships and render conventional seafarers obsolete. Autonomous ships will become part of some local transport systems as an alternative to other transport modes. The increasing digitalization of fleets (see below, on the left) will continue to transport seafarers’ tasks into more digital ones, reducing the need for human intervention and involvement. The future seafarer will benefit from having digital skills in three domains (se below, on the right): data fluency and an ability to interpret and analyze data; digital operation of physical entities; software engineering of fundamental programs and systems.

Publications

Emergent Technologies and Maritime Transport: Challenges and Opportunities

Authors:

Tiago Fonseca, Khanssa Lagdami, Jens-Uwe Schröder-Hinrichs

Publish date:

Nov 2019



Assessing Innovation in Transport: An Application of the Technology Adoption (TechAdo) Model to Maritime Autonomous Surface Ships (MASS)

Authors:

Tiago Fonseca, Khanssa Lagdami, Jens-Uwe Schröder-Hinrichs

Publish date:

Nov 2020



Study on social aspects within the maritime transport sector

Authors:

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key maritime information for 2017

Population (2017)

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merchandise trade (US$)

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fleet ownership (dwt)

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gdp US$ (2017)

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fleet-national flag (dwt)

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ship building (gt)

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Technology readiness: maritime